- Landry not being able to return to form,
- The Skins beating good teams (twice against the Super Bowl champion Giants) while losing to bad teams (3-13 Vikings and the 6-10 Bills and Dolphins),
- Injuries hampering the O-Line (which everyone saw coming),
- Chris Neild getting significant playing time despite being a rookie 7th-round pick (he played in all 16 games), and
- John Beck getting his chance to start (although we also predicted he would finish the season as starter ... ouch).
On to this year!!
1) Quarterback -- No one has gotten more coverage than RGIII, and my take has been made clear (he's got it all mentally as well as physically). So there's not much to add except the obvious: in large part the season will go as RGIII goes. My two main concerns for RGIII are: 1) staying healthy, and 2) learning to avoid the rush, reset, and throw without leaving the pocket.
2) Running Back -- Running back is intriguing. I've been extremely impressed with Alfred Morris since the first pre-season game. His vision and decision-making are exactly what you need to run behind the Shanahan zone-blocking scheme. If he can do the other things required of an RB at the pro-level, such as picking up the blitz and being a good outlet receiver, he could be a great Shanahan back. That said, Roy Helu is two gears faster than Morris, and could also take over the starter role when healthy. I expect Royster to serve as a back-up, playing more when Helu is injured or if Morris has too many rookie lapses.
3) Receivers/Tight End -- Lots of new faces here too, so it may take awhile for Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan to a) become fully comfortable in a new offense, and b) develop a rapport with RGIII. Now that Cooley is gone, Fred Davis better keep himself on the field. That said, Cooley might be back before long. It will also be interesting and hopefully fun to watch the Skins' talented group of young pass-catchers(Hankerson, Robinson, Paul, let's throw in Briscoe too even though he's not home-grown) develop.
4) Offensive Line -- Four of five starters return (Polumbus steps in at right tackle at least for now), so theoretically the O-Line should be a step ahead of last year. However, depth is still a question, especially at the tackle positions. How the O-Line protects RGIII will be a huge part of how well RGIII plays and progresses this year.
5) Secondary -- For the second consecutive year, lots of questions in the secondary. At safety we have new personnel, including injured starter Brandon Merriweather, suspended backup Tanard Jackson, and Madieu Williams (who is neither suspended nor injured as of this writing). Backup DeJon Gomes is expected to start against the Saints. The other backup safety, Reed Doughty, is a smart nice guy known for being in the right place at the right time, but often failing to make the play anyway because he's just not as strong and athletic as everyone else. The bright side is new secondary coach Raheem Morris, who is smart and motivating and an excellent addition to the staff.
6) Defensive Front Seven -- Colefield is turning into an above-average nose-tackle, and everything else about Haslett's 3-4 defense depends on that. Unfortunately, because Neild is out for the season with an ACL tear, Colefield's only backup is the unproven Chris Baker, who has played in exactly one NFL game. Colefield better stay healthy or else. The Skins may have the best linebacking core in the league, with Orakpo, Kerrigan, and Fletcher. Talent and depth at Defensive End are also very good.
7) Kicker -- The Skins cut Gano and signed Billy Cundiff. I don't agree with this move. Cundiff has the same career accuracy stats as Gano, except that Cundiff is worse from long distance. And if we exclude blocked kicks, Gano made 86% of his kicks last year including 4/6 from 50+ and a franchise best 59-yarder. Will Cundiff represent an improvement? The Skins will be in some close games this year, and we'll have a chance to find out.
On to the Season Prediction: The Skins will go 6-10. RGIII will have his share of big plays throwing and running, but he will also struggle with poise inside the pocket. These struggles will make him prone to turnovers as well as injuries (I cringed as I wrote the word "injuries"). The Skins O-Line will struggle as soon as just one starter gets injured. However, Alfred Morris will turn out to be a great fit for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, and Helu if healthy will play at a high-level, almost all-pro caliber. The defense will give up big pass plays especially early on as the safeties get healthy and adjust to a new defense and new teammates.
BUT .. despite this somewhat pessimistic prediction for this season, the outlook for next season is considerably better. RGIII will no longer be a rookie adjusting to a thousand new details and will be poised for a much better year. Alfred Morris will no longer be making rookie mistakes, and Roy Helu should be healthy, giving the Skins a fantastic 1-2 combo of RBs who fit the scheme perfectly. The new and the young receivers will have adjusted to the offense and developed rapport with RGIII. The Skins (hopefully) will finally finally address depth at O-Line. And another year will give the Skins time to shore up the secondary.
In short, this coming year might have more frustrations than successes, but given the youth and talent on both sides of the ball, the 2-3 year outlook is genuinely exciting.
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